The Chicago Council of Global Affairs recently described some new polling it had conducted on issues related to economic relations between China and the United States. Their broad conclusion is that "[t]he American public is increasingly skeptical of the US-China trade relationship," but the nuances of that statement leave some uncertainty about what exactly Americans believe here.

The Council listed its key findings as the following:

• "A plurality of Americans (40%) say China is the stronger economic power (27% say US, 31% about equal), a change from 2019 when more saw the US as the stronger power."
• "Two-thirds of Americans see China as more of an economic threat (67%) than an economic partner (30%)."
• "A majority of Americans now say that trade between the United States and China does more to weaken US national security (58%, up from 38% in 2019)."
• "Americans support increased tariffs on Chinese products (62%) and significant reductions in trade between the two nations even if it leads to greater costs to American consumers (57%)."

However, each of these findings raises some additional questions. Craig Kafura of the Council was kind enough to provide some of the underlying data, which helps illustrate the uncertainty about what these survey results mean.

With regard to whether China or the United States is the stronger power, here is the data over the last four surveys:

It's not clear what people are basing their answers on, and why their views are shifting back and forth over time. Does "stronger" mean largest GDP, which is close, with the United States still ahead by one measure and China in the lead by another? Could it mean GDP per capita, where the United States is way ahead? Is it about perceived strength in particular sectors? And why were people more likely to say China was stronger in 2014 and 2021 than in 2016 and 2019?

As to the "threat" vs "partner" question, there is only one year of data to look at:

In your view, is China more of an economic partner to the United States or more of an economic threat to the United States?

People clearly view China as more of a "threat" than a "partner," but here one might ask whether these are the best ways to describe the possibilities: What exactly is a threat, and what exactly is a partner, and is there something in between? Nevertheless, it is clear that people view China negatively in this regard.

On the question of whether trade with China weakens national security, here is the data:

Does trade between the U.S. and China do more to strengthen U.S. national security or weaken U.S. National Security?

This is the response that saw the biggest shift over time. Again, it is not clear what exactly people have in mind in terms of  the meaning of “national security,” as the term has a much broader scope today than it did just a few years ago, and how trade might “strengthen” or “weaken” it. Nevertheless, clearly people’s views have shifted in a negative direction in how they view trade with China.

Finally, on the issue of tariffs and trade, the polling data is as follows:

Would you support or oppose the following U.S. policies towards China?

(Note: two different surveys asked this question in 2021)

The change from 2020 to 2021 on these questions is modest. On the tariff question, one thing that is not examined here is what kind of tariffs. From the perspective of the American public, support for tariffs could just reflect a general goal of scaling down overall bilateral trade. But the reality is that there are a wide range of tariffs -- Section 232, Section 301, anti-dumping, countervailing duties, Section 201 -- and they have very different implications for trade policy and international relations. It might be hard to do a survey on such specific issues, but they do matter for the U.S.-China economic relationship. Other interesting survey results were as follows:

Would you support or oppose the following U.S. policies towards China?

Americans clearly do seem concerned about technology competition between China and the United States.

In terms of what is driving these attitudes, it is unlikely that most Americans are doing their own research on these issues. Their answers probably reflect the commentary they hear in the media or in politicians' statements, which often give a general impression that China is an economic threat without getting into the nuances. To some extent, the public's views could also be a simple reflection of current U.S. policy. In a separate poll conducted by the Brookings Institution earlier this year, 62% of surveyed business executives (based in the U.S., China and third countries) expect the U.S. government to tighten technology transfer to, and collaboration with, China.